Ant changed all of this in June 2013 when it introduced Yuebao, an easily accessible money-market fund that pays a market interest rate. By allowing for almost instantaneous purchase and redemption from its digital and a low starting investment (1), Yuebao offered millions of ordinary households a financial service never experienced in their economic life, making them realize that they need not tolerate the low interest rates of banks. In my own research (with Greg Buchak of Stanford University and Jiayin Hu of Peking University), we have found that Yuebao triggered a de facto financial liberalization across China, by putting pressure on banks to roll out their own low-entry barrier, low-cost, and market-rate-paying products.
如今，普通中国消费者享受的银行服务的质量和范围，在这场中国金融服务无声革命之前是很难想象的。蚂蚁集团悄无声息间接帮助推动了这场革命。除了对银行施加有益的竞争压力之外，蚂蚁集团还帮助许多银行扩大自己的业务，并通过合作的联合*协议提高效率。这些安排结合了银行的低资金成本优势和蚂蚁集团数据和算法驱动的风险和成本控制优势。通过一百多家合作伙伴，蚂蚁集团发现并介绍给银行许多有着良好信用的借款人，这些借款人以前银行是看不到的或者服务起来成本太贵。有意思的是，这些联合*的违约率通常低于银行自己的*项目。
For example, Ant has in-house algorithms to generate informative scores on credit risks for digital-payment users, including but also extending beyond those who shop or sell regularly online. Credit scoring, when permitted by China’s regulatory authorities, can be a standalone new business with potential demands from supply-chain firms, landlords, banks, and prospective employers.
此次IPO堪称历史上规模最大，超过了此前IPO纪录保持者沙特阿美（去年12月募资294亿美元）的规模，也超过了蚂蚁的大哥阿里巴巴（2014年在纽约证券交易所上市筹集250亿美元）的规模。根据蚂蚁集团的IPO招股说明书，公司计划募资344亿美元（约占公司股份的11%）。蚂蚁集团的总市值预计为3,134亿美元，将位列中国上市公司第三，世界排名十二，超过目前全球市值最高的上市银行摩根大通。
Ant still faces many potential headwinds. First, the United States and India’s recent restrictions on Chinese companies are reminders that its ultimate overseas success may depend on geopolitical dynamics beyond its control. Second, and more importantly, China’s own domestic regulators will have a huge impact on how much Ant can grow and expand into new businesses. Like US and EU regulators with respect to their own BigTech companies, Chinese authorities are concerned about Ant’s near-monopoly position in digital payments, as well as the unforeseen risks to financial stability and data privacy that it poses.
海外扩张是另一个潜在的增长领域。与其在国内数字金融领域的龙头主导地位相比，它的海外业务确实只是“小蚂蚁”。以数字支付为例，支付宝海外的使用量只是其国内的0.5%。然而，凭借其强大的算法和专业技术，蚂蚁应该有能力在许多其他国家寻求到市场需求，特别是如果它能够赢得海外监管机构的信任，并借力阿里巴巴的国际扩张。