For most emerging markets economies, it will be some time before they find a bottom where you'll really want to put money because they become very dependent on their exports to the developing world, including China. And to the extent that the recovery is real fast, then it's doubly hard for these emerging markets economies. So you can make a mistake of being too early in terms of investing in those areas.
我很高兴谈到我的新书，这本书在中国很受欢迎，我为全世界各地有能量的人而写，像很多中国朋友一样，他们是想要提升自我的人，是想要建功立业的人，是追求完美、日臻成熟的人，是心怀愿景的人，是像开拓者一样不畏艰险的人，或是正在接触新事物、新产品、新领域、新坐标的人，任何想要追求卓越的人或许都会从我的书中受益。
2020年，新冠肺炎疫情肆虐全球，世界经济陷入停摆。这是一场史无前例的全球危机，全球经济正面临着需求供给双重冲击，任何经济体都难以独善其身。值此变局关键时刻，凤凰网财经联合上海交通大学上海高级金融学院、北京大学国家发展研究院以“全球经济与政策选择”为主题，邀请政商学企界嘉宾通过线上形式解析全球经济面临的机遇与挑战。
这次新冠疫情及其影响绝对是前所未有的，在过去的一百年里没有人想象得到，如今病毒也会导致接近1930年代大萧条时期的高失业率，而今天的这一切可以说是主动权衡的结果。
Now, oil producers have probably reduced through OPEC, which is this group of countries that cut production by 10 million barrels, so it's still wildly out of balance. And now people are reducing even more oil and gas so that price will stay low for quite a while. They're the biggest losers.
餐饮业也是如此，世界各地的人们都喜欢去餐馆吃饭，但如果因为保持距离就坐只能使用半个餐馆，盈利会大幅减少。
问：很少有行业能够避免受到影响。在你看来，哪个行业受影响最大？在病毒大流行后的经济中，谁将是赢家？
There'll be more of an emphasis on computer science and in distance type of communications. Much like I'm being recorded now on something called Zoom. That's normal now. Those of us who are a little older didn't necessarily use all that kind of technology, but now, that's what we do.
有趣的是，新冠疫情对其中一些经济体没有产生太大影响，没人知道原因。而其他国家，比如巴西，正面临严重问题，但像缅甸或柬埔寨这样的国家，几乎没有任何影响。
现在，石油生产国可能已经通过OPEC减少了1000万桶的石油产量，但是它仍然严重失衡。现在人们近一步减少使用石油和天然气，所以价格将在相当长的一段时间内保持在低位。他们是最大的输家。
Well, in terms of my book, I'm really happy. It's getting a great reception in China because it was written for people who are like the Chinese, written for people all around the world, but they have to be people who are motivated. People who want to improve themselves. People who want to do things. People who want to make things better or more efficient. People with a vision. People who aren't scared to start new things when they’re completely new like entrepreneurs or there are new things within a company, new products, new areas, new geographies, anything where you're trying to make something better would benefit from What It Takes, my book.
以下为演讲实录：
虽然另一方面，这使得世界经济陷入异常困难的境地——极高的失业率，许多企业自愿或非自愿地关闭甚至破产，因此，如何在全球范围内重启经济是我们刚刚开始面临的问题。
中国有一些非常优秀的企业，无论是刚刚成立或者已经经营5年、10年甚至超20年的，人们用远见卓识和非凡动力创建了这些伟大的公司，人们能够非常努力工作且坚持不懈，这是中国能屡创奇迹的原因之一。所以，如果你有一个绝妙的想法并且知道如何付诸实践，你就一定有魅力可以吸引资本，可以创造出一些很美妙的奇迹。
因此，很多企业都将面临困难，尤其是零售业。
问：病毒大流行后的经济，您预期是否会有更多资本流入中国等新兴市场经济体？或者是更成熟的市场，如美国和欧洲？
I'm Steve Schwarzman, Chairman, CEO and Co-Founder of Blackstone. I'm also the bestselling author of What It Takes: Lessons in the Pursuit of Excellence.
And so this book will help you find your way at a time where a lot of people are uncertain and tentative. So here it is. If I were you, I would buy it. And I would read it. It's actually quite funny, which most people find surprising. It's like a thriller. It reads very quickly. So people tend to recommend it.
行业影响分化：能源、零售受重创，医疗保健蕴含大机会
If you're somebody my age, you’d recommend it to your children. If you're my children's age, they’d recommend it to their children because everybody learns and somebody has to be a teacher.
在更大的医疗领域，将会有各种各样的机会。计算机科学和技术的应用方式将会不断创新，这是一个非常令人兴奋的领域，对于年轻的企业家来说也是如此，当然无可避免也会有一些挑战。
With the Depression and the other major downturns like the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and 2009 those were accidents, this was on purpose. And it was done to protect citizens all over the world from the spread of COVID-19. And that was a very important thing to do.
对大多数新兴市场经济体来说，经济还需要一段时间才会触底反弹。因为它们依赖对包括中国在内的发展中国家的出口。即使疫情拐点很快到来，对于这些新兴市场经济体而言，经济复苏也是难上加难，所以不要急于抄底新兴经济体。
What's happened in almost every economy is – when this downturn was happening because people were staying in their own homes or their own apartments – governments in almost every country have put a lot of money into the economy to keep it going in effect, even if it's not going to supply money to the people in their countries, so that they won't have their savings severely diminished.
对于此刻这个经济低迷时期而言，这本书是非常有益的。人们变得小心谨慎甚至有些胆怯，环顾四周思考事情是如何发生的？我又该怎么做？未来什么会主导这个新的世界里？而我在书中讲述了很多可选择的方案。
不同的专家对每个国家有不同的看法，但中国很可能是恢复得最快的经济体，有如下几个理由：
人们会被重新培训，工作岗位将会转移。虽然仍然会有娱乐活动，人们会想去主题公园。但在一段时间内，人们仍然会担心是否会从别人那里感染病毒。
So there are a variety of businesses that will have difficulty and in particular, retail.
But it's not back instantaneously to where it started and that's normal to expect. Most people would like it to be faster, but it's not going to be as fast as an ideal case. But I think in China, it's going to get back quicker to those kinds of levels and they'll be different things going on in those economies.
And it's the same for restaurants. People like to go to restaurants all over the world, but if you have to only use half of a restaurant because of distance seating, they’ll be hurt.
Question: In a post-pandemic economy, do you expect to see more capital flow into the emerging market economies such as China? Or to more mature markets, such as the US and Europe?