在5月7日的凤凰连线中，黑石集团的董事长、首席执行官和联合创始人，畅销书《苏世民：我的经验与教训》的作者史蒂夫·施瓦茨曼（苏世民）对疫情对全球经济的影响作出深度剖析。截至2019年末，全球私募巨头黑石集团管理的资产价值高达5710亿美元，作为黑石集团董事长、首席执行官和联合创始人的苏世民也被称为“华尔街私募之王”，他曾经历过7次大规模的经济衰退和市场下滑，每次都能危中掘金的他是如何做到的？这次又能看到疫情下的哪些投资机会？
Question: Except for China and Iran, COVID-19 has yet to hit most emerging market economies to the extent it has impacted Europe and the US. Will it trigger new emerging market crisis?
另一方面，在医疗保健行业，现在正在发展一种叫做远程医疗的新事物。不用去医院，你可以在你的iPhone或小米手机上就医。你就可以随时和医生预约。如果你需要去医院或实验室做检查，那你再去医院。但医生可以推荐多种治疗方法。
Secondly, the nature of the Chinese consumer and Chinese system has people going to work quite quickly. Factory production is up a lot. They just opened traveling so you can see an instant response with airline travel and train travel.
It's very good coming out of an unfortunate economic time because people become overly cautious. They become somewhat timid. And it's at a time like that where you have to look around and say objectively, where are things happening? What should I be doing? What will work in this new world? And you have to think carefully, because in the book I describe only so many things you can do.
其次，中国消费者和中国的体制的特性让人们很快就能开始工作。工厂的生产增加了很多。旅游业刚刚放开，所以你可以看到航空旅行和火车旅行的即时反应。
There's going to be retraining, jobs are going to shift. They'll still be leisure activities. People will want to go to theme parks. But for a while, they're going to be concerned about whether they'll get the virus from somebody.
发生在每个国家的情况相似，因为人们都不得不待在家中，导致经济发展一度停滞。即便是没有直接向国民发现金，几乎每个国家的政府都投入了大量的资金以保持经济的有效运行，所以居民储蓄也不至于严重减少。
我写这本书是为了帮助人们避免我在职业生涯中所犯的错误。没有人不会犯错。人生不是一帆风顺的，无论是我还是你。关键是你如何从这些错误中吸取教训，重新开始或做出改变。
影响地区来看，苏世民认为“中国很可能是恢复得最快的经济体”，不仅因为中国是第一个应对这个问题的国家，并且中国庞大的消费市场和中国的体制的优势也使得中国的经济恢复加速进行。另外，对于严重依赖出口的新兴经济体来说，即使疫情拐点很快到来，经济复苏也是难上加难，因此苏世民提醒不要急于抄底新兴经济体，犯下投资过早的错误。
On the other hand, the healthcare business – there's something developing now called telemedicine so instead of going to see a doctor, you can do the doctor on your iPhone or your Xiaomi phone. And you'll just have your medical appointment there. If you need to go to a hospital or a laboratory for tests, then you'll go, but a lot of treatment will be recommended by doctors.
中国的亿万富翁比世界上任何地方都多：因为努力和坚持
Question: You just launched your book in China – What It Takes. What do you hope people will learn from reading it? In what ways is it applicable to the current environment?
就行业而言，苏世民分析，石油和天然气行业因为需求的锐减陷入困境，餐饮、旅游和零售行业受到疫情的冲击，但医疗保健行业也蕴含着巨大的投资机会，与计算机科技创新结合的领域充满想象。
未来，我们将会更重视调计算机科学和远程通信，就像我现在被一种叫做Zoom的软件录制下来，现在这样做很普遍。我们这些年纪稍大一点的人不一定会使用这些技术，但现在我们也做到了。
I think in terms of suffering the most, the oil and gas business is at the moment. The reason for that is, there's roughly on a global basis about a hundred billion barrels a year consumed and the amount that's produced is very similar. What's happened as a result of people staying at home and factories shutting is that the demand for oil basically is going down at least twenty five million barrels. So there's twenty five million of overproduction, which drives profits down and the consumption of oil just isn't enough.
There are some remarkable and amazing Chinese companies that have just been created, some in the last five years, some in the last 10 years, or an old company in China. Could be 20 years old. So people have created these remarkable companies with a vision and drive. And one of the great things about China is that people work at least as hard as any other place in the world, and they do it for a sustained period of time. So if you have a great idea and you figured out how to do it and you have a certain amount of charm where you can attract capital, you can create something wonderful.
Interestingly, some of those economies aren't having much problem with COVID-19 and nobody knows why. And others, for example, like Brazil, are having major issues, but countries like Myanmar or Cambodia, they're hardly having any.
这些国家有时会借入“硬通货”，但如果世界经济衰退导致这些国家经济疲软，对他们经济而言将是雪上加霜。因为许多新兴市场国家，将原材料卖给像中国这样需要自然资源推动经济发展的国家。
And so I recommend the book to you. It took me a long time to write it. I'm pleased with it and I'm glad it's been so well accepted in China.
“中国的亿万富翁比世界上任何地方都多，人们能够非常努力工作且坚持不懈，这是中国能屡创奇迹的原因之一。”苏世民高度评价中国，他还鼓励中国读者大胆创新：如果你有一个绝妙的想法并且知道如何付诸实践，你就一定有魅力吸引资本，可以创造出一些美妙的奇迹。
这些举措在美国还比较有效的，但还不够完善——因为他们不可能给到每个人充足的钱。所以我认为，消费者对重新开始工作的反应将是缓慢的。一旦储蓄得到恢复，你就不太可能花钱了，而且需要一段时间，经济才能恢复到以前的水平。