It would have been better to let things swelled up in 2008. Thoughit would be terrible, temporarily, but if we cleaned out the system, therewould be a new dawn. It’s what happened on the history. Many countries,including the US, have cleaned out the system. We had pain for a year or two,then we prosper. What the US government is doing is not good in the long run.
Rogers: The current oil price is not thelowest in history, but it is the lowest for a long time. From the rule of crudeoil prices, affected by various complex reasons, oil prices hit bottom; thenafter being recovered for a while, it will dip to a lower point; then it willgo up slowly and keep going like this. Whether in 2008 or now, this is therule.
罗杰斯：我当时说，如果下一轮经济危机到来，将会是我有生以来经历最糟糕的一次。我判断的理由是，2008年的经济危机爆发的理由是当时全球负债水平非常高。可据我观察，2008年以来，世界各国或地区的负债水平不减反增，债务问题日益严重。所以我说，一旦再出现经济危机，我们将会陷入非常可怕的境地。现在的市场已经应验了。
《红周刊》：原油价格今年曾下探到18美元/桶的价格，您如何看未来原油价格的发展趋势？
Rogers:It’smainly terrible for oil companies and oil drilling companies, because obviouslythey are going to have a lot less money. It is good for American citizens,people who use oil for electricity, or cars, or air conditioning or whatever.It’s good for China. It’s good for Japan, Korea, and any oil consuming country.This is not good for oil companies or oil producing countries. But it is certainly good for everybody else.
《红周刊》：首先希望跟您探讨全球疫情以及全球市场大幅调整的问题，新冠肺炎疫情也影响您的生活了吧？
罗杰斯：从长远来看，让市场自我调节是更有好处的。政府采取救济行为以便事态不会失控，但这些一时的救济只会导致问题积累得越来越严重。2008年经济危机中，政府出手干预没有让市场崩溃，事态也的确变好了。但到了今天，债务已经积累得太高了。在2008、2009年，可能有些人没有为此付出代价，所以当问题再一次出现时，后果将会更加严重。
Rogers:I can only read in English, so I read Financial Times and English newspapersfrom other countries. Now everything is on the internet, so I can read thingsconveniently from all over the world; I don’t read newspapers anymore. I readabout China, Korea and Russia on the internet; I can read about any country andany industry I interested in.
Rogers: The oil price war is certainlygood for countries that use a lot of oil, such as Germany and Japan. It is alsogood for many countries in the world, including South Korea, but definitely notgood for Saudi Arabia and Russia.
《红周刊》：原油期货都出现“负价格”这种极端情况了，我们能否据此认为，全球市场前景变得更加不确定了？
Weekly on Stocks: The global economy was hit hard by the outbreak,and you warned investors four or five years ago that “another global economiccrisis will be triggered in the next few years.” Is the current economic crisisas what you expected?
Rogers:We need to stop intervening the market and owing so much debt. Let the markettake its own course. Let the competent people fill where they may fill. Thenwe’ll start over. That’s how the mechanism is supposed to work. When somepeople get into trouble, other competent people will come to take over theassets from them, reorganizing the market and making it start over from a soundbase. It has always been so. But now, things are going on the other way allaround the world. With too much intervening, the assets are taken away from thecompetent people and left for the incompetent people; the competent people haveto cope with their own money.
Rogers:Yes, please be careful of poor investment decisions. We are going to have somedifficult times in the next two or three years, maybe even longer. So please bevery careful about your investments. Do not invest in anything unless you’vegot good knowledge about it. If you can’t find a good opportunity to makeinvestment, just wait; put your money in the bank, because it’s safer. To putyour money in the bank, you won’t lose money, while in the investment market,many people will lose a lot of money in the next few years.
《红周刊》：部分职业投资人开始担忧疫情后中美贸易摩擦再度升级所带来的潜在风险，您是否有类似的担忧？
罗杰斯：现在石油崩盘了，市场非常混乱。通常，在任何国家的任何市场，有这样的事情发生时，如果你知道自己在做什么并买入了，你可能会经历一段时间的动荡难熬期，但最终都会没事。
罗杰斯：现在的石油价格不是史上最低，但的确是很长一段时间以来的最低价。从原油价格规律来看，受各种复杂原因影响，油价出现触底；然后恢复一段时间，随后下探到一个更低点；然后再慢慢攀升，不断循环。无论是2008年还是现在，都符合这个规律。
Rogers:Thank you, thank all of you.
Rogers: What I said was, when we haveanother economic crisis, it is going to be the worst in my lifetime. The reasonwas, the economic crisis of 2008 was due to a high global debt. For what I cansee, the debt has been surging rather than reducing since then. So, if anothercrisis comes up, it will to be horrible. And it is.
罗杰斯：巴菲特用的是恐惧，我用的是恐慌，基本上是一个意思。
Weekly on Stocks: In fact, theBrent crude oil futures contract in June is to be settled in the near future.Is there any chance that it will fall again or even go negative?
早在2008年危机的时候，就应该让事态自然发展。尽管当时的情况会很糟糕，但是至少当整个市场出清之后，事情就会真正变好。历来都是这样的，许多国家都经历过这种事情，包括美国。经济体系崩溃而后重新洗牌，之后的一两年会很难熬，但事情会越来越好。以美国目前对市场的做法来说，是治标不治本的，从长期来看没有好处。
Rogers:It’s very simple. This is an aberration in the futures market. You can’t buyoil at this price. In the futures markets, you have to deliver the oil on acertain day. When someone pays you, you deliver the oil. But now, all theplaces for oil storage are full; no one wants to buy oil even at a very lowprice. Most participants in the futures market just buy and sell oil, but notuse it. So, when there’s a truckload of oil going to come all of a sudden, wegot to get rid of it. They had to dump it hurriedly. In the end, they paidsomebody else to take the oil away, because participants in Chicago and othermarkets were in no position to take the oil. As mentioned before, many of theoil storage tanks were already full. It can happen again. But it’s obviouslymuch less likely to happen.
还有，每个人都应该看《证券市场红周刊》（笑）。
他提醒所有投资者，未来两三年可能很多人会损失很多钱。
Itry to teach my children that they should read from many sources. If you onlyspeak English, you can watch CGTN from China, BBC from England, RT from Russia,and KBS from Korea. On the internet, you can watch in English many sources ofinformation. I have taught my daughters that they should watch them all. Everyone of them thinks it’s correct. If you only watch CNN, you get information itdeems accurate, but this can’t be always true.
现在不仅通过B股、H股以及美国上市的中概股持有中国资产，我也持有A股了，加仓中国红酒公司
Rogers: Indeed, the disease has become aglobal pandemic. My life is also affected. I have to stay at home in Singapore.I can’t go to China or anywhere else. There are some Chinese stocks I’m veryinterested in, but at present I can’t go to check them. Maybe I’ll buy themlater.
Rogers:I’m very delighted to be here. I haven’t seen you for a long time, so I’mreally happy. In 2004, I participated in your first international MastersForum; I was much younger back then. That’s a wonderful experience, making meknow better about China.
Weekly on Stocks: So, will this global economic recession be assevere as the Great Depression in 1929?
《红周刊》：那在您看来，哪些因素或者措施会促使其尽早结束呢？
罗杰斯：当然，这意味着有些石油公司和石油钻探公司会破产。水力压裂（页岩油）行业的情况很糟糕，有些石油公司负债很高，它们的日子也不会好过。我说过，在沙特阿拉伯、科威特、苏丹等严重依赖石油或油价的国家，你会看到更多的问题，例如企业破产。在航运业，目前有一家很大的新加坡的公司已经破产了，原因是它们完全没料到油价会下跌。所以，经济肯定会受到影响，股市也会反映出来。但要记住，有人会乐见油价下跌。如果你是韩国人，你会觉得这是好消息。如果你是中国人，你也会觉得这是好消息。这对新加坡人也是好消息，但破产的这家公司除外。
罗杰斯：一定要谨慎些。在未来两三年乃至更长的时间里，我们的日子都不会太好过，所以要谨慎地对待投资。不要草率地去投资那些你并不了解的领域。如果眼下没有合适的投资机会，耐心等待，把钱放在银行里，这样更安全。在接下来的几年里，会有很多人失去他们的资产，要警惕。
You have to keep learning and becomeknowledgeable, because you’ll probably keep your assets in the crisis, or evenmake more money only if you know what you are doing. In the 1930s, many peoplemade a lot of money despite the Great Depression. So, we can make money in badtimes if we are knowledgeable and cautious enough. Just be careful.
新冠肺炎疫情、“石油战”、全球市场暴跌、原油期货“负价格”……2020年全球市场“黑天鹅”不断。如果有人听从了美国著名投资人吉姆·罗杰斯四五年前的建议，或许遇到的麻烦会少一些，因为他那时就呼吁投资者要警惕新一轮全球经济危机的出现。