并且保持学习。如果你能保持学习，有足够的知识来支撑你的行动，你就更有可能在这场危机中坚持下来，甚至有可能赚到钱。在上世纪30年代大危机中，许多人赚到了钱，所以我们也有机会在经济不景气的时候赚钱，只要你知道你在做什么，并且足够谨慎。一定要谨慎。
A large part of the USstock market is made up of oil companies and oil drilling companies. So thatpart of the American economy will suffer. Since it’s a large part, it will havean effect on the overall market. However, the factors that make the Americanstock market going down are not just oil, but also the outbreak of the COVID-19.
Weekly on Stocks: What is your advice to professional investors inChina who want to continue exploration in the general situation and valueinvestment in terms of learning and improvement?
《红周刊》：对于中国的职业投资人，如果想在基本面和价值投资继续深挖，在学习和提高方面，您的建议是什么？
罗杰斯：我只能读英文内容，我会读《金融时报》，以及其他国家的一些报纸。不过现在网上可以看到一切信息，只需要上网就能够了解全球发生的一切，因此我不再读报纸了。我会上网了解关于中国、韩国还有俄罗斯的事情；我可以在网上查找我感兴趣的任何国家和任何行业的相关讯息。
Weekly on Stocks: In youropinion, how will the collapse of crude oil futures affect the U.S. equity andbond markets?
Ofcourse, we haven’t gone that far by now.
Weekly on Stocks: We are grateful for the guidance and support youhave given us over the past 1decade as our honorary advisor at Weekly onStocks.
Rogers: Thank you, I would liketo see you in person when I’m in China again.
《红周刊》：那么这次全球经济衰退会像1929年全球市场大萧条那样严重吗？
Rogers:Yes, the bull market is drawing to aclose, or maybe it’s already ended. Since the US government and other nationalgovernments have been spending and printing huge amount of money, we’re havinga rally in shares on the stock market. This situation may go on for a while,because so much money has been pumped into the market. But this will be thelast rally before the emerging storm.
（本刊记者林中、李健、何艳、李沐遥对此文亦有贡献）
Weekly on Stocks: Thanks againMr. Rogers for accepting the interview with Weekly on Stocks. So much for myquestions. I hope that I can still have the opportunity to have face-to-faceinterview with you like this. And good health to you!
Panics and pandemics are not going to lastforever.Closures are not going to lastforever. So, we are going to drive again, we are going to take airplanes again.If you step in, I might do it. I’m not doing it today because I’m doing otherthings. But If I were not so lazy, I probably should be stepping in or figuringabout when and how to step in and buy, making investments in this sector. Because there is apanic and whenever you buy during a panic, you can always do well.
编辑|李壮
Weekly on Stocks: Can we conclude that the decade-long bull marketin U.S. stocks is over?
投资不是容易的事，认为投资很容易的人还是别做投资了，趁早转行吧。投资赚钱是很难的，对投资要有足够的耐心。
（提醒：本文为《红周刊》32期封面文章节选版，专访中罗杰斯还就中国资产能否成为全球资产的“避风港”、是否将投资“新基建”、其所持有的中国航空股是否将调仓；美联储“放水”是否将影响美元的上涨趋势、黄金的未来投资机会，以及如何在“冷门股”中寻找好公司、为何回避苹果、亚马逊等热门科技股等精彩话题。阅读专访完整版请点击下方图片订阅本期《红周刊》。）
Weekly on Stocks: The mistakesyou mentioned should include the continuous “liquidity injections” by centralbanks in various countries, right?
Rogers:I don't know. Maybe your show can tell me the answer (Laugh). The market iscertainly better prepared now. “Negative price” came as a big surprise toeveryone. No one wants it, for it never happened before. But now exchanges,including those who might want to buy oil at low prices, have got ready. Ifthey see someone has to dump the oil, someone may buy it, and some people douse oil still. So, we’ll see. It’s good for you (reporters), because you havesomething to report.
Weekly on Stocks: Would theconsequences be better or worse if let the market recover through aself-correcting mechanism instead of banknote printing?
《红周刊》：您预计此次调整真正结束的时间是什么时候？
罗杰斯精彩语录：
立即停止对市场的干预，不要再借那么多的债，让市场机制发挥作用，让那些有意愿、有能力解决问题的人到他们该去的位置上，让一切重新开始，麻烦才会尽早结束。
罗杰斯：谢谢你们，谢谢大家。
Weekly on Stocks: You're afrugal person, so as your great friend John Templeton, a famous investmentmaster famous for frugalness. Do you think thrift is a necessary quality forsuccessful investors?
2020年4月20日上午10时，在《红周刊》演播室，我们连线了在新加坡居家隔离（新加坡政府要求所有居民4月7日~5月4日居家隔离）中的吉姆·罗杰斯。在专访中，罗杰斯表示，当前世界各国债台高筑是引发他担忧的主要原因，“2008年拥有大量货币储备的中国救了全世界，但这次中国自身也有不少债务。”在他的预期中，这将是他有生以来遭遇的最糟糕的熊市。“虽然现在还没有体现，但最终结果一定会比2008年更糟糕，但可能好于1929年。”
《红周刊》：再次感谢罗杰斯先生百忙中接受我们《红周刊》的采访，我的问题结束了，希望下次有机会可以当面向您请教。也祝您身体健康！
《红周刊》：您作为我们《红周刊》的荣誉顾问，10多年来也给予我们很多指导和支持，我们对此心怀感激。
Weekly on Stocks: According to U.S. government data, U.S. crude oilreserves continued to buy oil in March as the overall market began to fall.What do you think of the actions taken by U.S. crude oil reserves?
Rogers: Trump is doing that because hewants to get votes. As everyone knows, he’s losing votes in the oil producingareas. Although, it’s something that all countries should be doing. Oil hascollapsed. Oil prices have fell down. If China, Germany or any other countryhave not enough reserves of oil for emergencies, they should be stepping in andbuying oil now and putting it in their own storage tanks.
Rogers:Itwill be better in the long run. The US government props the market up to avoida breakdown; but with the accumulating debt, the breakdown is unavoidable, andit’ll be much more worsened. In 2008, the market didn’t collapse, and now wehave an all-time high debt. Nobody paid the price in 2008 and 2009, so when wehave the next problem, it’s going to be more serious.
And, one more thing. Everybodyshould watch Weekly on Stocks.(Laugh)
So,the lesson from this story is that you should go and start a company of storagetanks right away. You can rent out the tanks and make a lot of money (Laugh).
《红周刊》：巴菲特近期表示，今年股市的调整并不像1987年或者2008年那么糟糕，这和您的观点似乎相差较远。
《红周刊》：作为此次市场调整的另一大“黑天鹅”，沙特和俄罗斯等国家的“石油战”有缓和的迹象，这是否有助于加速市场从熊市氛围中走出来？
我持有不少美元和人民币现金 ，刚买入了黄金和白银，农产品商品的机会也不错。
I hate trade wars. I'm an American, soI'd hate to see the current situation. Waging a trade war is a completelyirrational act. It will hurt both countries. I wish the US government would bemore sensible. So far, China has been more restrained and cautious.
罗杰斯：（央行放水）只是各种错误中的一个。美国政府推出了2万亿财政刺激计划，央行则在加印数万亿美元的纸币。这个数量级真的非常可怕，负债将会突破天际，所以后果也将是难以承受的。短期内或许还好，因为今年总统大选将在11月份举行，所以在大选结束以前问题或许不会显现。不过在那以后，这些天量债务导致的问题就会出现，无论对美国还是其他的国家来说，都将是一场噩梦。
Weekly on Stocks: Someprofessional investors are beginning to worry about the potential risks ofrenewed escalation of trade frictions between the US and China following theepidemic, do you have similar concerns?
这很荒谬。这使得我们无法清理整个经济系统，以让它正常运转。清理过程就像一场山火，你身在其中时会觉得十分可怕，但山火会烧掉那些坏木头和一些灌木丛。在这场火之后，森林也会长得比之前更好。经济衰退就是要靠这样的方式复原的，从来都是如此。不过现在美国和西方不愿意面对这样的事，所以情况变得越来越糟糕。
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《红周刊》：全球经济因为疫情遭受重创，您在四五年前就提醒投资者“新一轮的全球性经济危机未来几年将会爆发。”现在这轮经济危机是您预想的那样吗？
《红周刊》：疫情使得各国全球供应链有了新的认识，美、日等国政府一些高官鼓励跨国企业将生产线迁回本土，这被市场理解为“逆全球化”，您如何看待这种现象？
Thus,we need to get information from more sources. We can watch five or six TVnetworks from different countries, then we figure out what is really happeningby ourselves. It’s not easy. I have been doing this for 40 or 50 years. Now I’mtrying to teach my children to do the same. Media convey the information theydeem right. They all think they are right, but they can’t all be right. Weshould figure out what’s right by thinking independently.