Rogers:No, I don’t think that’s over-optimistic. In my opinion, isolation is amistake. We’ve had panics and epidemics before. You know, we had SARS. We hadthe H1N1 avian influenza in 2009. When we had the H1N1, the U.S. economy wasnot locked down. There is no denying that viruses do have an impact on people’shealth, but history shows that people have learnt to adapt. Singapore wascompletely isolated, but it got worse because everyone has packed in together.So, in my opinion, isolation is not a good thing.Andonce the economy reopened, the demand for everything would rise. We see, forexample, that Austria is lifting the lockdown, but Sweden never conducts the “lockdown”of the country and its cities. So, it doesn’t have to be a lockdown. There areother solutions as well.
Rogers:It will last long. Usually we need a year or a year and a half to tide over thestorm. We’ll suffer then start over. But remember, we are having an all-timehigh debt, so this time, it’s going to take long to recover. It’ll be very hardfor us.
Rogers:No, this crisis is going to be worsethan that of 2008 before it’s over. It has not been yet, but it will be. Afterall, it’s only been six weeks. Now the turbulence of the market is onlytemporarily lessened.
以下为中英文对话实录节选：
罗杰斯：很简单，这是期货市场的反常现象，这个价格你不能买石油。期货市场规定，在特定的日子必须进行交割。有人付钱给你，你就要交割石油。但是现在，所有储油的地方都装满了油。因此，无论是什么价格都没人想买石油。而期货市场的大多数参与者只是买卖石油，而不消费石油。所以，突然一下，有一车石油要运来了，我们必须把它处理掉。他们不得不赶紧抛售。最后，他们付钱给别人来把石油拉走，因为芝加哥和其他市场的参与者不可能接收这些石油，就像前面说的许多储油罐都装满了。这种情况后续还会发生。但显然发生的概率小了很多。
Rogers:Of course, this means that some oil companies and oil drilling companies aregoing to go bankrupt. It’s a very bad situation for the hydraulic fracturing(shale oil) industry, and some of the oil companies are heavily indebted andthey are going to have a hard time. As I said, in the countries like SaudiArabia, Kuwait, Sudan which depend largely on oil or the oil price, you aregoing to see more problems, such as bankruptcies. In the shipping industry, alarge Singaporean company has gone bankrupt because it did not expect the oilprice to fall. Thus, it’s having ramifications in the economy, and that willalso have a reflection in the stock market. But remember, there are some peoplewho love to see this. If you are Korean, you would think this is wonderful. Ifyou are Chinese, you will also think this is wonderful. It is also great forSingaporeans, except for the company that went bankrupt.
罗杰斯：美国现在的所作所为非常糟糕，极度不理智。特朗普或许认为贸易战是对美国有好处的，但贸易战从来就没有为任何人、任何国家带来过好处。特朗普或许不知道这一点，如果他知道，那就是过于自大了。
罗杰斯：我不知道，也许你们的节目可以告诉我答案（笑）。市场现在肯定是有所准备了，“负价格”对所有人来说都是一个意料之外的事情，没有人想得到，因为以往从来没发生过。但是，现在包括交易所，包括那些或许想低价买入石油的人都有所准备了。如果他们看到有人必须要抛售石油，就会有人出来买，有些人仍然需要消费石油。所以，我们等着看吧。这对你（记者）来说是好事，因为你有了报道的素材。
《红周刊》：您所说的错误应该包含各国央行不断“放水”吧？
罗杰斯：节俭是帮助成功的一个重要因素。我很早就给我女儿们买了储蓄罐，迷失传奇页游sf，并且告诉她们拿到零花钱要存在里面。我对她们说，钱是用来储蓄的，而用来投资的钱不应该花掉；如果你已经有了一定的存款，需要在该花的时候再去花。目前为止我的女儿们做的不错，她们总是把钱存起来。当储蓄罐装满了，我们就把这些钱存到银行户头里。我一直在教育我的孩子们要懂得储蓄，并且节俭一些。或许二三十年后你可以问问她们，我这样做对不对。我知道许多人花的钱比赚的多，负债为生，而很多人的人生、婚姻都因此毁掉了。如果你问我，我会说钱是用来存的，没有足够的储蓄时不要随意开销。当然这是我的理念，别人有别人的。
Rogers:As for me, I’ll try to get as many perspectives as I can. I love CGTN, aChinese English language network, but I know their information can’t beaccurate all the time. Thus, I will watch others to get more comprehensiveinformation and more sweeping view from other nations. Even then, I makemistakes. But it’s crucial to try to get as many perspectives as I can. I knowinformation on the network in China is not as open as in some other nations;nonetheless, I would urge all investors to get as many sources of informationand perspectives as they can. If you only watch CNN in America, you would bebiased; if you only watch RT in Russia, or any other media of a nation, youwould be biased, too. However, if you have enough sources of information, youmay get a better judgement on what’s really going on.
Rogers: Unfortunately, there have indeedbeen such moments in history. Sometimes countries become more open andinternational, sometimes they become more closed. I think after decades-longopenness, the world now has a tendency to be closed, which is not a good trend.Such state existed during the Great Depression of the 1930s, which led to war,among many other problems. There is also a trend towards this now. I hope itwon’t last long. Many US companies are moving back to the US, but the cost ofstarting a business in the US is quite expensive and the quality of the productmay not be as good. That may be the case with the current state of affairs, andit's bad, both for my children and for the world.
《红周刊》：接下来和您探讨一些投资理念的问题。您很节俭，您的好朋友也是著名投资大师约翰·邓普顿的“抠门”也很出名，节俭是成功的投资人必备的品质吗？
对于当前各国央行“撒钱救市”的举措，他认为，这只会让市场变得更差，美股多年牛市正在走向终结。但同时，他仍坚定看好中国资产。他在采访中透露，上周刚加仓了一家中国红酒公司，对于自己持有的中国航空公司资产也没有卖出的打算，如果出现有利条件还会加仓。“中国是21世纪最伟大的国家并不仅是口头说说，我的两个女儿都在学习中文，我用实践在表达我对中国的看好。”
Weekly on Stocks: As another “blackswan” in this market correction, the “oil price war” between countries such asSaudi Arabia and Russia is showing signs of mitigation. Would this help toaccelerate the market out of the bear market atmosphere?
现在市场状况已经很差了，而贸易战会使它变得更差。我之前说过，如果政客们开始接连犯错，那么经济形势会越来越差，越来越差！他们是有可能继续犯错的。如果特朗普真的发动贸易战，在今年晚些时候或者明年，那么市场走向可能会比我预期的还要糟糕。我说过，这次危机将是我有生以来最糟糕的一次熊市。贸易战对任何人都是绝对没有任何好处的。
罗杰斯：立即停止对市场的干预，不要再借那么多的债，让市场机制发挥作用，让那些有意愿、有能力解决问题的人到他们该去的位置上，让一切重新开始。当一些人陷入麻烦时，有才智的人会来接手他们的资产，重新运作，让事态重获好的出发点。历来如此，这是市场机制的运作方式。然而，无论是在东方还是西方，现在人们都不想这样做。强硬干预带来的结果是，资产没有被给到那些有才智的人手里，而是给到了那些无法胜任的人手里，并且让那些无法胜任的人继续和有才智的人——完全是用自己的钱——来展开竞争。
《红周刊》：从美国政府数据来看，美国原油储备在3月份整个市场开始下跌的时候不断买入原油，您如何看美国原油储备的动作？
Weekly on Stocks: Such extremesituation like “negative price” has occurred to crude oil futures, can weassume that the outlook for global markets has become more uncertain?
《红周刊》：罗杰斯先生，您好！很荣幸能够邀请到您，做客我们“面对面”独家深度专访节目。
罗杰斯：主要是对石油公司和石油钻探公司不利，因为显然它们会大幅亏损。对美国老百姓有利，那些需要石油来发电、为汽车加油、使用空调或有其他用途的人们会受益。对中国有利。对日本、韩国或任何石油消费国都有利。这对石油公司或产油国不利，但显然对其他人有利。
《红周刊》：如果各国央行不“印钞”，让市场通过“自我修正机制”来恢复，后果会比现在更好还是更糟糕？
《红周刊》：其实，布伦特原油6月份期货合约近期内将要进行结算，有没有可能也会出现再次下跌甚至负值？
Weekly on Stocks: To be “greedy”in a time of fearful, as Warren Buffett said.
Weekly on Stocks: A swift endto “isolation” around the world could accelerate a recovery in oil marketprices, according to The Guardian. Is that over-optimistic?
但现在来看，还没到那个地步。
Weekly on Stocks: In youropinion, is it the good timing to buy in crude oil futures? If you were to buy,when would you choose to buy it?
隔离不是一件好事，应对此次疫情还有其他解决方案。
记者|林伟萍
Rogers:Now the oil has crashed and the market is in chaos. Usually, in any market inany country, when such thing occurs, if you know what you are doing and you buyin, you might go through a turbulent period for a while, but eventually youwill be fine.