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一支机器人部队正在拯救零售商(3)

Ocado创立时,市场上的英国食品连锁店,如Tesco、Sainsbury’s和沃尔玛旗下的Asda电商业务均已上线。各家连锁店利用实体商店完成网上订单,店员选出商品装上送货卡车。该过程被称为“店内分拣”,是多数零售商将电子商务嫁接到现有业务上的方式。店内分拣不用投资额外的资本或劳动力,但存在缺点。很多店的储藏室太狭窄,无法承接大规模分拣操作,员工可能得在超市里根据在线订单选货,影响到店购物的客户体验。由于库存较小,商品也很有可能出现缺货现象,这是导致客户不满的主要原因。

类似疑虑并未影响Ocado筹集资金。2018年公司发行了1.87亿美元的股票。2019年2月,Ocado将50%的英国电商业务出售给英国零售商玛莎百货。对投资者来说,此次出售让Ocado定位更单纯,就是纯粹的技术平台,同时筹集了9.82亿美元。(玛莎百货也成为Ocado新的食品批发合作伙伴;Ocado与Waitrose的长期合同将于2020年底终止。)12月Ocado还出售了6.55亿美元的可转债。

The slew of licensing deals pushed many investors to abandon their skepticism: It’s been a long time since Ocado was a heavily shorted stock. “I used to be a big bear, but I became a big bull after the Kroger deal,” says Bruno Monteyne, an analyst who covers European retailers for the equity research firm Bernstein Research. Still, those deals aren’t adding much to the bottom line—because Ocado receives money only after the automated CFCs are built.

The robots’ grid is actually the top of a giant three-dimensional lattice—a modular cage packed with groceries. Each time a robot stops, it drops a clawlike attachment into the bowels of the lattice (“the hive,” as human workers call it), descending as many as three stories. The claw grabs the sides of a white plastic crate containing fruit, vegetables, cereal—any of 55,000 different items—and retracts it up into the robot’s belly. The robot then carries the crate to another grid square and lowers it into the “pick tunnel,” which sits beneath the hive on the warehouse’s ground floor. There, workers pick items out of the crates to fill customers’ orders, placing the groceries into red plastic bins, which are then loaded onto trucks for delivery.

Ocado’s pitch to grocers stresses those benefits and adds a compelling twist: Ocado can build the automation infrastructure for them, sparing them the pains and costs of developing their own.

Constant spending on improvements, meanwhile, was eating up cash. By 2007, Ocado’s revenues were $338 million, and galloping ahead at more than 20% annually. But the company was also running annual operating losses of more than $45 million—and spending tens of millions more to improve its CFC and purchase delivery trucks. It had more than $130 million of debt. At one point, John Lewis wrote its investment in the young online grocer down to zero.

机器人并不是克拉克唯一关心的事。在“垂直”农业领域也就是可持续农业的室内试验方面,Ocado进行了多项投资。公司收购了欧洲最大垂直农业公司Jones Foods的多数股权,投资成立了名叫Infinite Acres的合资企业,以及一家名为80 Acres Urban Agriculture的美国初创企业,还有荷兰Priva Holdings公司。另一项投资是英国初创企业Karakuri,该公司创建了自动厨房,可准备好餐厅级别饭菜然后送货。克拉克说,Ocado设想是构建“整合食品机器”。他解释说,通过垂直耕作、准备食品和同一设施内配送,“可实现从农场到餐桌两个小时或更短的时间内完成。”

Steiner and Clarke have also begun looking beyond food altogether in search of profitable business lines. Ocado’s expertise in logistics, A.I., robotics, and simulation could be deployed to tackle automated car parks, parcel sorting, baggage handling, rail freight, container ports and modular, configurable buildings. Clarke says the company has filed patents in a number of these areas. Ocado has already created simulations of a car-parking system, Clarke says, and has begun exploring scaled-up versions of its robots for handling freight far heavier than a crate of bananas.

与此同时,持续支出改善消耗了大量现金。2007年,Ocado的收入为3.38亿美元,每年以超过20%的速度飞速增长。但每年运营损失也超过4500万美元,还要花费数千万美元改进分拣中心,以及购买送货卡车。目前公司债务超过1.3亿美元。约翰·刘易斯已将对Ocado的投资减记为零。

Amazon and Walmart are no strangers to robotics. Amazon has begun using Roomba-like robots from Kiva, a Massachusetts company it acquired in 2012 for $775 million, to move large stacks of pallets around its fulfillment centers. Last year, it also acquired Canvas, a Boulder, Colo., startup whose computer vision systems allow the warehouse robots it builds to work in crowded conditions alongside people. Walmart has deployed thousands of robots from Bossa Nova Robotics, a Pittsburgh company, to keep track of stock in its stores. It has also created a pilot, fully automated warehouse in New Hampshire that serves its order-online-and-customer-pickup grocery business.

多年来,Ocado转型技术平台的说法似乎停留在口头上。股票分析师普遍怀疑,该股也是长期以来卖空者的最爱。但Ocado的物流能力逐渐获得了认可。从2017年开始,公司跟四大洲多家食品连锁店达成一系列许可协议,包括跟克罗格达成巨额合作协议。此后,Ocado的市值翻了两番超过100亿美元,每年收入增长约10%,2019年达到22亿美元。对科技公司来说如此慢的增速毫无意义,但对杂货店来说已相当可观。

2010年夏天,Ocado在伦敦证交所上市,估值为9.37亿英镑(按照当年汇率约合14亿美元)。在很多分析师预期里,一直赔钱的杂货店并不值这么多,上市首日公司股价下跌了10%。之后Ocado一直饱受怀疑情绪困扰,接下来10年里Ocado的股票经常像是市场上最爱卖空的股票之一,大帮基金经理在一边喝倒彩。

While Ocado breaks ground on CFCs around the world, Clarke, the chief technology officer, is peering around the next technological bend. He has experimented with new robots, including ones with human-like hands that could someday eliminate the need for human pickers altogether. He’s also helped research ones that could grasp delicate items, like fruit, without damaging them. And Ocado has trialed a robot called SecondHands, which travels on wheels but has a humanoid torso, head and arms, to help carry out repairs to the hive and conveyors. Eventually, Clarke says, “the goal is to move to an entirely dark facility”—that is, a CFC with almost no people.

The robots allow Ocado’s newest fulfillment centers to pick 200 items per hour of labor time—and mean they can move a typical order from inbound supply truck into the hive, and then have it picked, packed, and loaded on a van for delivery in 15 minutes or less. Meanwhile, the modular design of the hive itself means it can easily be replicated and sized to fit new locations.

一些业内人士认为,“传统”杂货商与巨头竞争的唯一途径就是学习巨头最先进的技术和物流基础设施。自动化还有助于削减劳动力成本。麦肯锡的另一份2019年5月发布的报告估计,应用现有技术后,杂货店指出的工时可能减少55%至65%。

缺乏资源模仿Ocado的技术,也正是客户跟Ocado合作的常见原因。“我们公司规模很大,但技术并非专攻。”瑞典公司ICA首席执行官安德斯·斯文森说。相比之下,Ocado雇佣了1800多名软件工程师和600多名硬件专家。比起亚马逊或谷歌当然少得多,但在杂货行业里已经是很庞大的技术团队。

大概这段时间里,管理过科技初创企业的软件顾问保罗·克拉克接到了Ocado招聘人员的电话。“当时我说:‘很抱歉,但我不想做零售业。’” 60岁左右,身材瘦长的克拉克回忆说,虽然没去牛津大学读成博士,但一身学者风范。后来克拉克参观了Ocado的仓库,对其规模和复杂性印象尤为深刻。哈特菲尔德是自动化方面的巨大难题,正是他喜欢解决的工程问题。“我立刻爱上了。”他说。

Among those who visited Ocado was the U.K. grocer Morrisons, which had revenues far exceeding Ocado’s but didn’t have an online offering. The two companies reached a deal that sold half the capacity of Ocado’s newest CFC to Morrisons, with Ocado agreeing to manage the facility and a delivery fleet on Morrisons’ behalf. When Morrisons.com launched in January 2014, it was the first evidence that Ocado could put its platform to work for other grocers.

机器人运行的网格实际上是巨大三维网格,也是装满食品的模块化笼子顶部。每次机器人停下,都用爪子状的装置伸进格子内部(员工称之为“蜂巢”),下降多达三层。爪子抓住白色塑料板条箱的侧面,里面装着水果、蔬菜、谷类等多达55000种物品,然后缩回机器人腹部。随后机器人将板条箱运到另一个格子区,放在仓库底层蜂箱下方的“分拣通道”。员工根据顾客订单从板条箱里拿出商品放进红色塑料箱,装上卡车送货。

Ocado对杂货商的宣传强调了各项好处,还补充了令人信服的事实,即Ocado可协助搭建自动化基础设施,节省自行开发的精力和成本。

尽管如此,Ocado跟其他同行一样,满足需求也不太顺利。为了应对铺天盖地的订单,Ocado关闭了其移动应用程序,还在网站上增加了排队系统。但需求实在太多,3月中旬Ocado一星期里的送货时间全被预订,被迫临时关闭网站。近一周后重新上线时,原有用户下单都受到限制,然而限制后还是很难及时送货。而且,Ocado跟许多杂货店一样,临时限制每件商品只能买两到三件,以阻止囤货。

亚马逊和沃尔玛对机器人技术并不陌生,2012年亚马逊以7.75亿美元收购马萨诸塞州Kiva公司后,已开始使用Roomba型机器人,在分拣中心运送大堆货物。去年,亚马逊还收购了科罗拉多州博尔德市的初创公司Canvas,利用该公司的计算机视觉系统,仓库机器人可以在拥挤的环境中跟人类共同工作。沃尔玛则从匹兹堡的Bossa Nova Robotics订购了数千台机器人,用来跟踪门店库存。沃尔玛还在新罕布什尔州试点了全自动化仓库,为用户在线下单线下自提业务提供支持。

此类仓库又被物流专业人士称为顾客订单分拣中心(CFC),是全世界最先进和自动化程度最高的仓库之一,每周可以处理数万个订单。此处仓库属于业内领先的英国在线杂货商Ocado,其定位是像白衣骑士一样帮助陷入困境的杂货业在自动化时代展开竞争,也有可能帮助其他行业。

Ocado频繁融资让一些分析师不安。但首席执行官施泰纳表示,融资是实力的象征,而不是弱点。“融资的唯一原因是打算做更多(业务)。”他表示。今年2月,全球最著名的投资者也对Ocado的战略间接投了信任票,沃伦·巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司在提交政府的文件中披露,斥资近5.5亿美元收购了克罗格2.3%的股权。

译者:Feb

造访Ocdoad的公司当中也包括英国连锁超市莫里森,其收入远远超过Ocado,但没有电商业务。两家公司达成协议,将Ocado最新分拣中心一半产能出售给莫里森,Ocado还帮莫里森管理设施和送货车队。2014年1月莫里森网店Morrisons.com开业,证明了Ocado的平台可用于其他公司。

The frequency of Ocado’s fundraising has made some analysts uneasy. But Steiner, the CEO, says the efforts are a sign of strength, not weakness. “The only reason to do a capital raise is because you think you are going to do more [business],” he says. And in February, the world’s most prominent investor offered an indirect vote of confidence in Ocado’s strategy: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway disclosed in government filings that it had spent almost $550 million to buy a 2.3% stake in Kroger.

不过接下来的一年里,Ocado实现第一次实现营业利润。大约在同一时间,食品杂货咨询公司、投资银行,后来连宝洁、联合利华、雀巢和可口可乐等巨头也开始低调要求参观分拣中心。斯坦纳的本能反应是拒绝。“当时我们很保密。”他回忆说。但他很快意识到,虽然其他公司参观分拣中心可能会学到一些技巧,但Ocado十多年里搭建集成软件、硬件、仓库工人和送货流程的系统其实无法复制。2012年的年报中,Ocado首次提出将知识产权货币化制定为战略方针。

被工作人员称为“蜂巢”的Ocado分拣中心内,数千台机器人用最快速度和最少人工完成订单。图片来源:COURTESY OF OCADO GROUP

The robots, designed by Ocado in conjunction with U.K. robotics company Tharsus, are controlled by an internal 4G network with more base stations packed into less space than pretty much anywhere else on the planet. The network enables each robot to communicate with the software controlling it 10 times per second. At Erith, the hive generates four terabytes of data every day, all of which is fed back into a digital twin to refine the system.

Ocado于互联网繁盛时期创立,当时三位20多岁的英国人蒂姆·施泰纳、乔纳森·法曼和杰森·吉辛在高盛当交易员,投资创业公司亏了钱。2000年4月,三人联合成立了Ocado。(Ocado是个虚构的词,之所以选这个词是因为不属于任何一种语言,而且创始人喜欢这几个字母当标志的样子。)Ocado的首席执行官施泰纳是创始人里唯一留在公司的人。他看起来结实修长,短短的灰色头发,淡蓝色的眼睛,快速介绍Ocado的历史时散发出一种拳击手的气质。

没有实体店的Ocado采取了不同的做法。公司在伦敦北部边缘的哈特菲尔德建立了自动化中央配送中心,接收所有订单,可将库存短缺几率降至最低。这项业务迅速走红,一直在消费者调查中名列前茅。订单中商品替换或错误率均低于0.5%,远高于竞争对手。

Several other deals followed, including with ICA, a Swedish company that operates 1,300 groceries; with Coles, in Australia; and with Aeon, Asia’s largest supermarket chain, in Japan. But the biggest of them all was the strategic partnership Ocado reached in May 2018 with Kroger. The American giant took a 5% share in Ocado and gained exclusive U.S. rights to its technology; Ocado committed to building about 20 CFCs for Kroger. The British company’s shares soared 44% on the day the partnership became public.

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