Pure-play supermarkets have been far slower to automate. But in June 2017, a major move by Amazon gave Ocado’s modernization sales pitch a Saturn V–size boost. That was when the Everything Store spent $13.7 billion to buy upscale grocer Whole Foods, which had 500 stores worldwide. The deal stoked grocers’ fears that Amazon would decimate them as it had so many retailers in other categories—and the trickle of interest in Ocado’s technology became a torrent.
In the summer of 2010, Ocado went public on the London Stock Exchange, in a listing that valued the company at 937 million pounds ($1.4 billion at the time). That was more than many analysts thought the money-losing grocer was worth, and its shares fell 10% on their first day of trading. That skepticism would continue to haunt Ocado: Over the next decade, its shares would frequently have the dubious distinction of the being among the market’s most shorted, a Greek chorus of hedge fund managers cheering for its failure.
Even before the coronavirus hit, grocers were under tremendous pressure. “Both growth and profitability have been on a downward trajectory due to higher costs, falling productivity, and race-to-the-bottom pricing,” McKinsey wrote in a recent report. Sales growth for North American and Western European grocers has been just 2% over the past decade. Net profit margins for U.S. grocery chains, meanwhile, average just 1% to 2%, according to consulting firm Mercator Advisory Group. On top of these dismal trends, executives in the sector fear the twin Death Stars of retail—Amazon and Walmart—both of which have made clear their intentions to dominate the grocery business. Walmart is already by far the largest seller of groceries in the U.S., with a 21.3% market share, according to UBS, more than twice the share of its nearest competitor, supermarket chain Kroger.
尽管如此，Ocado跟其他同行一样，满足需求也不太顺利。为了应对铺天盖地的订单，Ocado关闭了其移动应用程序，还在网站上增加了排队系统。但需求实在太多，3月中旬Ocado一星期里的送货时间全被预订，被迫临时关闭网站。近一周后重新上线时，原有用户下单都受到限制，然而限制后还是很难及时送货。而且，Ocado跟许多杂货店一样，临时限制每件商品只能买两到三件，以阻止囤货。
Ocado目前经营六家分拣中心，支持在英国食品杂货店业务，其目标是十年内在全球范围内至少经营50家。3月26日，Ocado在英国之外为法国Groupe Casino建造的第一家分拣中心正式启用。另一家位于多伦多郊外为Sobeys建造的分拣中心将于6月开业。至于为克罗格建设的第一家分拣中心，按照计划2021年上半年将在俄亥俄州门罗县投入使用。
由于Ocado核心的食品杂货业务仍在努力证明可持续性，向其他领域拓展听起来有点压力。不过，如果想知道Ocado为什么想做停车场或港口运营业务，施泰纳有个现成的答案：如果当初亚马逊只卖书，现在会怎样？（财富中文网）
跟强手达成战略伙伴关系有利于公司发展。Ocado发现自身规模很小，很难跟批发商谈到合适的价格，于是与高档英国连锁超市Waitrose签订协议，之后Ocado可参照其合作方式跟供应商交易。作为交换，Ocado同意接下来10年售卖带有Waitrose白色标志的产品（后来协议延长了10年）。Waitrose的百货商店母公司约翰·刘易斯曾投资4500万美元收购其40%的股份。
一支机器人部队正在拯救零售商
缺乏资源模仿Ocado的技术，也正是客户跟Ocado合作的常见原因。“我们公司规模很大，但技术并非专攻。”瑞典公司ICA首席执行官安德斯·斯文森说。相比之下，Ocado雇佣了1800多名软件工程师和600多名硬件专家。比起亚马逊或谷歌当然少得多，但在杂货行业里已经是很庞大的技术团队。
一些业内人士认为，“传统”杂货商与巨头竞争的唯一途径就是学习巨头最先进的技术和物流基础设施。自动化还有助于削减劳动力成本。麦肯锡的另一份2019年5月发布的报告估计，应用现有技术后，杂货店指出的工时可能减少55%至65%。
造访Ocdoad的公司当中也包括英国连锁超市莫里森，其收入远远超过Ocado，但没有电商业务。两家公司达成协议，将Ocado最新分拣中心一半产能出售给莫里森，Ocado还帮莫里森管理设施和送货车队。2014年1月莫里森网店Morrisons.com开业，证明了Ocado的平台可用于其他公司。
Sherri Malek, an equity analyst at RBC Capital Markets, says Ocado won’t see positive free cash flow from its licensing until at least 2022. Meanwhile, Ocado’s heavy investment has led to ballooning losses—worsened by a catastrophic fire that gutted one of its CFCs in early 2019.
克拉克签了一年合同，任务是改进哈特菲尔德快速运转的传送带货品流动控制系统。克拉克说，Ocado的操作非常复杂，要重新设计的话，唯一方法就是搭建一系列数字“孪生体”，本质上是对操作的实时软件模拟。如此一来克拉克和团队能在实际仓库中实现配置改进之前进行试验，避免了代价高昂的测试和错误。施泰纳说，不久之后，新系统协助提高了设备效率，现在5加5能做到等于12。
面对大批许可经营协议，很多投资者不得不放弃怀疑，Ocado被大量做空的日子也一去不返。“之前我拼命做空，但Ocado跟克罗格合作后，我拼命做多。”股票研究公司伯恩斯坦负责欧洲零售商的分析师布鲁诺·蒙泰恩说。不过，相关交易并未增加太多利润，因为自动分拣中心建设完成后Ocado才能收到回报。
In November 2017, Ocado announced a deal with French retailer Groupe Casino to supply the technology for its e-commerce in France. Two months later, it partnered with Sobeys, which operates 1,500 stores under a variety of brand names across Canada. “It’s the only profitable e-commerce model at scale that I’ve seen,” Sarah Joyce, Sobeys senior vice president for e-commerce, says of Ocado.
Robots aren’t the only topic on Clarke’s mind. Ocado has made multiple investments in “vertical” farming—indoor experiments in sustainable agriculture. It bought a majority stake in Jones Foods, Europe’s largest vertical farming company, and has put money into a joint venture called Infinite Acres along with a U.S. startup called 80 Acres Urban Agriculture and Dutch company Priva Holdings. Another investment is Karakuri, a British startup creating automated kitchens that can prepare restaurant-style meals for delivery. Clarke says Ocado envisions building an “integrated food machine.” By combining vertical farming, food prep, and delivery in one facility, he explains, “you might be able to go from plant to kitchen table in two hours or less.”
多年来，Ocado转型技术平台的说法似乎停留在口头上。股票分析师普遍怀疑，该股也是长期以来卖空者的最爱。但Ocado的物流能力逐渐获得了认可。从2017年开始，公司跟四大洲多家食品连锁店达成一系列许可协议，包括跟克罗格达成巨额合作协议。此后，Ocado的市值翻了两番超过100亿美元，每年收入增长约10%，2019年达到22亿美元。对科技公司来说如此慢的增速毫无意义，但对杂货店来说已相当可观。
当时克拉克已擢升为首席技术官，他对平台的构想更加雄心勃勃。Ocado推出莫里森网店的第二天，克拉克在当地一家酒店召集员工开会。他首先祝贺短短六个月内就让莫里森网站如期投入运营，这是重大的技术成就。但他接下来的话让很多人倒吸一口冷气。“整个技术堆栈要重写。”他告诉员工。刚开始，重写主要意味着软件改进。但到2015年中，Ocado已经开始研发大批机器人，在“蜂巢”里忙碌。
克拉克签了一年合同，任务是改进哈特菲尔德快速运转的传送带货品流动控制系统。克拉克说，Ocado的操作非常复杂，要重新设计的话，唯一方法就是搭建一系列数字“孪生体”，本质上是对操作的实时软件模拟。如此一来克拉克和团队能在实际仓库中实现配置改进之前进行试验，避免了代价高昂的测试和错误。施泰纳说，不久之后，新系统协助提高了设备效率，现在5加5能做到等于12。
施泰纳和克拉克也开始看食品之外的领域，寻找利润丰厚的业务。Ocado在物流、人工智能、机器人技术和仿真方面的专长可应用于自动停车场、包裹分拣、行李搬运、铁路货运、集装箱港口和模块化、可配置建筑等。克拉克说，公司已经在相关领域申请了多项专利。克拉克表示，Ocado研发了模拟停车系统，而且开始探索扩大版机器人，以处理比一箱香蕉重得多的货物。
Ocado is hardly alone in this. Consultants McKinsey & Co., in a note to grocery clients on March 19, reported that online grocers worldwide were struggling to meet demand spikes as high as 700%. There’s a good chance the pandemic will have a lasting impact on consumer behavior, converting many more customers to online grocery shopping long after the crisis recedes. Supermarkets will need ways to meet this new demand as efficiently as possible—which ought to boost interest in Ocado’s automated warehouses, robots, and software.
Ocado测试能处理精致食品和修理的仿真机器人。图片来源：COURTESY OF OCADO GROUP
Over the following year, though, Ocado eked out its first small operating profit. Around the same time, grocery consultants, investment banks, and, eventually, huge packaged goods companies—Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Nestlé, and Coca-Cola—began quietly asking to tour the company’s fulfillment centers. Steiner’s instinct was to refuse. “We were quite secretive,” he recalls. But he soon realized that while other companies might glean a few tips by touring the CFCs, they couldn’t replicate the integrated system of software, hardware, warehouse workers, and delivery drivers Ocado had built over a decade. In its 2012 annual report, Ocado for the first time made monetizing its intellectual property a strategic plank.
与此同时，持续支出改善消耗了大量现金。2007年，Ocado的收入为3.38亿美元，每年以超过20%的速度飞速增长。但每年运营损失也超过4500万美元，还要花费数千万美元改进分拣中心，以及购买送货卡车。目前公司债务超过1.3亿美元。约翰·刘易斯已将对Ocado的投资减记为零。
This warehouse, or customer fulfillment center (CFC), as logistics pros call it, is one of the most sophisticated and automated on the planet, one that can handle many tens of thousands of orders a week. It belongs to Ocado, a pioneering British online grocer that is positioning itself as a white knight for the beleaguered grocery sector—and possibly other industries too—offering to help supermarket chains compete in an automated age.
不过接下来的一年里，Ocado实现第一次实现营业利润。大约在同一时间，食品杂货咨询公司、投资银行，后来连宝洁、联合利华、雀巢和可口可乐等巨头也开始低调要求参观分拣中心。斯坦纳的本能反应是拒绝。“当时我们很保密。”他回忆说。但他很快意识到，虽然其他公司参观分拣中心可能会学到一些技巧，但Ocado十多年里搭建集成软件、硬件、仓库工人和送货流程的系统其实无法复制。2012年的年报中，Ocado首次提出将知识产权货币化制定为战略方针。
苏格兰皇家银行资本市场的股票分析师谢里·马莱克表示，2022年之前Ocado都很难从许可经营业务获得正现金流。与此同时，巨额投资导致损失不断膨胀，2019年初，一家分拣中心又毁于灾难性的大火，导致损失进一步恶化。
虽然Ocado在全球范围内率先推出机器分拣中心，但首席技术官克拉克正关注下一个技术转折点。他测试了新款机器人，包括装有类似人手装置的机器人，今后可以完全代替人类拣货。他在研究不损坏水果之类易碎物品的捡取方法。Ocado还测试了叫“第二手”的机器人，此类机器人能用轮子行走，但有仿人类的躯干、头部和手臂，可以修理蜂箱和传送带。克拉克说，最终“目标是设备内完全黑暗”，也就是说分拣中心几乎没有人类参与。
问题是：哈特菲尔德应用的技术还有很多需要改进之处。Ocado使用的设备是巨型传送带和分拣机，都是为制造业工厂设计，工厂通常大量制造相同的产品。但这种模式不适合种类繁多的杂货店，而且每位顾客的订单都不一样。“之前我开过物料搬运设备的玩笑，感觉是5加5的投入只能得到7的回报。”施泰纳说。