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独家对话美国著名投资人吉姆·罗杰斯:未来两三年许多人将损失惨(3)

  It would have been better to let things swelled up in 2008. Thoughit would be terrible, temporarily, but if we cleaned out the system, therewould be a new dawn. It’s what happened on the history. Many countries,including the US, have cleaned out the system. We had pain for a year or two,then we prosper. What the US government is doing is not good in the long run.

  Rogers:Yes, please be careful of poor investment decisions. We are going to have somedifficult times in the next two or three years, maybe even longer. So please bevery careful about your investments. Do not invest in anything unless you’vegot good knowledge about it. If you can’t find a good opportunity to makeinvestment, just wait; put your money in the bank, because it’s safer. To putyour money in the bank, you won’t lose money, while in the investment market,many people will lose a lot of money in the next few years.

  罗杰斯:很不幸,历史上确实有过这样的时刻。有时国家们会变得更开放、更国际化,有时它们变得更封闭。我想在长达几十年的开放化之后,世界现在有了封闭的趋势。这不是一件好事。在1930年代大危机时期就出现过这种状态,它导致了战争,以及其他许多问题。现在也有这种趋势。我希望它不会长久。许多美国公司都在搬回美国,但在美国开办企业的成本是非常昂贵的,产品质量却未必同样好。目前事态或许就是如此,这很不好,无论是对我的孩子,还是对这个世界。

  罗杰斯精彩语录:

  隔离不是一件好事,应对此次疫情还有其他解决方案。

  Weekly on Stocks: In youropinion, how will the collapse of crude oil futures affect the U.S. equity andbond markets?

  Weekly on Stocks: According to U.S. government data, U.S. crude oilreserves continued to buy oil in March as the overall market began to fall.What do you think of the actions taken by U.S. crude oil reserves?

  《红周刊》:周一(4月20日),NYMEX原油期货2005(5月合约)报收于每桶-37.63美元,自1983年开始交易以来首次出现负值。您认为是什么原因导致“负价格”这种极端情况的出现?

  《红周刊》:首先希望跟您探讨全球疫情以及全球市场大幅调整的问题,新冠肺炎疫情也影响您的生活了吧?

  Rogers: Unfortunately, there have indeedbeen such moments in history. Sometimes countries become more open andinternational, sometimes they become more closed. I think after decades-longopenness, the world now has a tendency to be closed, which is not a good trend.Such state existed during the Great Depression of the 1930s, which led to war,among many other problems. There is also a trend towards this now. I hope itwon’t last long. Many US companies are moving back to the US, but the cost ofstarting a business in the US is quite expensive and the quality of the productmay not be as good. That may be the case with the current state of affairs, andit's bad, both for my children and for the world.

  《红周刊》:您所说的错误应该包含各国央行不断“放水”吧?

  对于当前各国央行“撒钱救市”的举措,他认为,这只会让市场变得更差,美股多年牛市正在走向终结。但同时,他仍坚定看好中国资产。他在采访中透露,上周刚加仓了一家中国红酒公司,对于自己持有的中国航空公司资产也没有卖出的打算,如果出现有利条件还会加仓。“中国是21世纪最伟大的国家并不仅是口头说说,我的两个女儿都在学习中文,我用实践在表达我对中国的看好。”

  Rogers:As for me, I’ll try to get as many perspectives as I can. I love CGTN, aChinese English language network, but I know their information can’t beaccurate all the time. Thus, I will watch others to get more comprehensiveinformation and more sweeping view from other nations. Even then, I makemistakes. But it’s crucial to try to get as many perspectives as I can. I knowinformation on the network in China is not as open as in some other nations;nonetheless, I would urge all investors to get as many sources of informationand perspectives as they can. If you only watch CNN in America, you would bebiased; if you only watch RT in Russia, or any other media of a nation, youwould be biased, too. However, if you have enough sources of information, youmay get a better judgement on what’s really going on.

  《红周刊》:作为此次市场调整的另一大“黑天鹅”,沙特和俄罗斯等国家的“石油战”有缓和的迹象,这是否有助于加速市场从熊市氛围中走出来?

  这很荒谬。这使得我们无法清理整个经济系统,以让它正常运转。清理过程就像一场山火,你身在其中时会觉得十分可怕,但山火会烧掉那些坏木头和一些灌木丛。在这场火之后,森林也会长得比之前更好。经济衰退就是要靠这样的方式复原的,从来都是如此。不过现在美国和西方不愿意面对这样的事,所以情况变得越来越糟糕。

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