Rogers:It’smainly terrible for oil companies and oil drilling companies， because obviouslythey are going to have a lot less money. It is good for American citizens，people who use oil for electricity， or cars， or air conditioning or whatever.It’s good for China. It’s good for Japan， Korea， and any oil consuming country.This is not good for oil companies or oil producing countries. But it is certainly good for everybody else.
Weekly on Stocks: The mistakesyou mentioned should include the continuous “liquidity injections” by centralbanks in various countries， right？
《红周刊》：最后给我们读者说些您的寄语吧！
Weekly on Stocks: As another “blackswan” in this market correction， the “oil price war” between countries such asSaudi Arabia and Russia is showing signs of mitigation. Would this help toaccelerate the market out of the bear market atmosphere？
罗杰斯：我非常高兴来参加此次采访。我很久没有见过你们了，所以真的很高兴。我还清晰地记得早在2004年参加你们首届“国际投资大师讲坛”，那会儿我比现在年轻多了。那是一段很愉快的经历，也让我更加深入的了解了中国。
Weekly on Stocks: Thanks againMr. Rogers for accepting the interview with Weekly on Stocks. So much for myquestions. I hope that I can still have the opportunity to have face-to-faceinterview with you like this. And good health to you!
罗杰斯：节俭是帮助成功的一个重要因素。我很早就给我女儿们买了储蓄罐，并且告诉她们拿到零花钱要存在里面。我对她们说，钱是用来储蓄的，而用来投资的钱不应该花掉；如果你已经有了一定的存款，需要在该花的时候再去花。目前为止我的女儿们做的不错，她们总是把钱存起来。当储蓄罐装满了，我们就把这些钱存到银行户头里。我一直在教育我的孩子们要懂得储蓄，并且节俭一些。或许二三十年后你可以问问她们，我这样做对不对。我知道许多人花的钱比赚的多，负债为生，而很多人的人生、婚姻都因此毁掉了。如果你问我，我会说钱是用来存的，没有足够的储蓄时不要随意开销。当然这是我的理念，别人有别人的。
罗杰斯：很简单，这是期货市场的反常现象，这个价格你不能买石油。期货市场规定，在特定的日子必须进行交割。有人付钱给你，你就要交割石油。但是现在，所有储油的地方都装满了油。因此，无论是什么价格都没人想买石油。而期货市场的大多数参与者只是买卖石油，而不消费石油。所以，突然一下，有一车石油要运来了，我们必须把它处理掉。他们不得不赶紧抛售。最后，他们付钱给别人来把石油拉走，因为芝加哥和其他市场的参与者不可能接收这些石油，就像前面说的许多储油罐都装满了。这种情况后续还会发生。但显然发生的概率小了很多。
Rogers:It’s very simple. This is an aberration in the futures market. You can’t buyoil at this price. In the futures markets， you have to deliver the oil on acertain day. When someone pays you， you deliver the oil. But now， all theplaces for oil storage are full； no one wants to buy oil even at a very lowprice. Most participants in the futures market just buy and sell oil， but notuse it. So， when there’s a truckload of oil going to come all of a sudden， wegot to get rid of it. They had to dump it hurriedly. In the end， they paidsomebody else to take the oil away， because participants in Chicago and othermarkets were in no position to take the oil. As mentioned before， many of theoil storage tanks were already full. It can happen again. But it’s obviouslymuch less likely to happen.
Rogers:Of course， this means that some oil companies and oil drilling companies aregoing to go bankrupt. It’s a very bad situation for the hydraulic fracturing（shale oil） industry， and some of the oil companies are heavily indebted andthey are going to have a hard time. As I said， in the countries like SaudiArabia， Kuwait， Sudan which depend largely on oil or the oil price， you aregoing to see more problems， such as bankruptcies. In the shipping industry， alarge Singaporean company has gone bankrupt because it did not expect the oilprice to fall. Thus， it’s having ramifications in the economy， and that willalso have a reflection in the stock market. But remember， there are some peoplewho love to see this. If you are Korean， you would think this is wonderful. Ifyou are Chinese， you will also think this is wonderful. It is also great forSingaporeans， except for the company that went bankrupt.
《红周刊》：就像巴菲特所说的赶在恐惧的时候去“贪婪”。
《红周刊》：再次感谢罗杰斯先生百忙中接受我们《红周刊》的采访，我的问题结束了，希望下次有机会可以当面向您请教。也祝您身体健康！
并且保持学习。如果你能保持学习，有足够的知识来支撑你的行动，你就更有可能在这场危机中坚持下来，甚至有可能赚到钱。在上世纪30年代大危机中，许多人赚到了钱，所以我们也有机会在经济不景气的时候赚钱，只要你知道你在做什么，并且足够谨慎。一定要谨慎。
投资不是容易的事，认为投资很容易的人还是别做投资了，趁早转行吧。投资赚钱是很难的，对投资要有足够的耐心。
Weekly on Stocks: Hi Mr. Rogers! It is a great honor to have youwith us for an exclusive in-depth interview on “Face to Face”.
Rogers:It will last long. Usually we need a year or a year and a half to tide over thestorm. We’ll suffer then start over. But remember， we are having an all-timehigh debt， so this time， it’s going to take long to recover. It’ll be very hardfor us.
2020年4月20日上午10时，在《红周刊》演播室，我们连线了在新加坡居家隔离（新加坡政府要求所有居民4月7日~5月4日居家隔离）中的吉姆·罗杰斯。在专访中，罗杰斯表示，当前世界各国债台高筑是引发他担忧的主要原因，“2008年拥有大量货币储备的中国救了全世界，但这次中国自身也有不少债务。”在他的预期中，这将是他有生以来遭遇的最糟糕的熊市。“虽然现在还没有体现，但最终结果一定会比2008年更糟糕，但可能好于1929年。”