罗杰斯：现在的石油价格不是史上最低，但的确是很长一段时间以来的最低价。从原油价格规律来看，受各种复杂原因影响，油价出现触底；然后恢复一段时间，随后下探到一个更低点；然后再慢慢攀升，不断循环。无论是2008年还是现在，都符合这个规律。
Rogers:I doubt it will be as severe as the Great Depression， but it could be. First，the world is drowning in debt. Second， we had the Great Depression becausepoliticians made mistakes， and they may make mistakes again. As I can see，they’re beginning to make mistakes. Governments of the US and Singapore aremaking mistakes； other countries may follow them. As for China， it’s marketshould be more open. If politicians don’t make wise decisions， then we’ll havea crisis worse than the Great Depression.
还有，每个人都应该看《证券市场红周刊》（笑）。
Rogers:That’s one of the mistakes. The US government approved the $2-trillion stimuluspackage while the central bank is printing another several trillion dollars.It’s staggering amount of money. The debt is soaring extremely high， so theconsequence will be terrible. Maybe we’ll be OK for a few months， because theelection is in November. We may be OK until then； but with all the debt， wewon’t hold out much longer. It will be a nightmare for the US and othercountries.
Weekly on Stocks: Would theconsequences be better or worse if let the market recover through aself-correcting mechanism instead of banknote printing？
Rogers:I don't know. Maybe your show can tell me the answer （Laugh）. The market iscertainly better prepared now. “Negative price” came as a big surprise toeveryone. No one wants it， for it never happened before. But now exchanges，including those who might want to buy oil at low prices， have got ready. Ifthey see someone has to dump the oil， someone may buy it， and some people douse oil still. So， we’ll see. It’s good for you （reporters）， because you havesomething to report.
但现在来看，还没到那个地步。
Weekly on Stocks: As we’re approaching to the end of the interview，could you please share more with our readers？
Weekly on Stocks: In fact， theBrent crude oil futures contract in June is to be settled in the near future.Is there any chance that it will fall again or even go negative？
Itry to teach my children that they should read from many sources. If you onlyspeak English， you can watch CGTN from China， BBC from England， RT from Russia，and KBS from Korea. On the internet， you can watch in English many sources ofinformation. I have taught my daughters that they should watch them all. Everyone of them thinks it’s correct. If you only watch CNN， you get information itdeems accurate， but this can’t be always true.
Weekly on Stocks: In youropinion， is it the good timing to buy in crude oil futures？ If you were to buy，when would you choose to buy it？
You have to keep learning and becomeknowledgeable， because you’ll probably keep your assets in the crisis， or evenmake more money only if you know what you are doing. In the 1930s， many peoplemade a lot of money despite the Great Depression. So， we can make money in badtimes if we are knowledgeable and cautious enough. Just be careful.
《红周刊》：对于中国的职业投资人，如果想在基本面和价值投资继续深挖，在学习和提高方面，您的建议是什么？
《红周刊》：英国卫报发表观点认为，如果世界各地迅速结束“隔离”，将加速石油市场价格的复苏。这个判断是否乐观了？
罗杰斯：巴菲特用的是恐惧，我用的是恐慌，基本上是一个意思。
《红周刊》：其实，布伦特原油6月份期货合约近期内将要进行结算，有没有可能也会出现再次下跌甚至负值？
罗杰斯：这次全球调整将会持续很久。按以往经验来说，一般会持续一年至一年半。这段时间内我们会感到很痛苦，然后事态逐步得到改善。但我还是想强调一下，因为当前全球严重的债务水平比之前提高了很多，所以恢复起来会更艰难。
不过我教我的女儿们，一定要多维度地了解事情。如果想看英文资讯，可以看中国的中国国际电视台，英国的BBC，韩国的KBS，还有俄罗斯的RT。在网络上，这些咨询应有尽有，我告诉我的孩子们，如果想详尽的了解事情，这些都要看。她们认为我说的对。如果你只看CNN，并认为它向你传达它的讯息是绝对正确的，但这是不可能的。
Weekly on Stocks: To be “greedy”in a time of fearful， as Warren Buffett said.
罗杰斯：我不知道，也许你们的节目可以告诉我答案（笑）。市场现在肯定是有所准备了，“负价格”对所有人来说都是一个意料之外的事情，没有人想得到，因为以往从来没发生过。但是，现在包括交易所，包括那些或许想低价买入石油的人都有所准备了。如果他们看到有人必须要抛售石油，就会有人出来买，有些人仍然需要消费石油。所以，我们等着看吧。这对你（记者）来说是好事，因为你有了报道的素材。
这次危机会比2008年全球金融危机更糟糕。如果全世界的政客都不明智，那么这次危机比30年代那次还要严重是有可能的。
《红周刊》：我们可以就此判断美股十多年的牛市已经走到头了吗？
现在市场状况已经很差了，而贸易战会使它变得更差。我之前说过，如果政客们开始接连犯错，那么经济形势会越来越差，越来越差！他们是有可能继续犯错的。如果特朗普真的发动贸易战，在今年晚些时候或者明年，那么市场走向可能会比我预期的还要糟糕。我说过，这次危机将是我有生以来最糟糕的一次熊市。贸易战对任何人都是绝对没有任何好处的。
罗杰斯：我觉得这次危机倒不见得像上世纪30年代大危机那样严重，尽管不能完全排除这种可能。这取决于这样几大因素：首先目前全球债务问题实在是太严重了。其次，在20世纪30年代，由于美国、欧洲等政客们有许多错误决策，才导致了那次大萧条。而现在他们依然可能会犯错误，有些人已经开始（犯错）了。例如，美国正在做一些错误决定，新加坡也是，还有其他国家……如果说中国的话，它应该变得更开放。就是说，如果全世界的政客都不明智，那么这次危机比30年代那次还要严重是有可能的。
Rogers: What I said was， when we haveanother economic crisis， it is going to be the worst in my lifetime. The reasonwas， the economic crisis of 2008 was due to a high global debt. For what I cansee， the debt has been surging rather than reducing since then. So， if anothercrisis comes up， it will to be horrible. And it is.
《红周刊》：如果各国央行不“印钞”，让市场通过“自我修正机制”来恢复，后果会比现在更好还是更糟糕？
美国股市有相当大的一部分是石油公司和石油钻探公司，所以这部分经济会受到冲击。由于这类公司占比较大，所以会对大市产生影响。但美国股市不是只有石油，诱发美国股市下跌的因素也不仅是石油，还有肺炎疫情。
罗杰斯：一定要谨慎些。在未来两三年乃至更长的时间里，我们的日子都不会太好过，所以要谨慎地对待投资。不要草率地去投资那些你并不了解的领域。如果眼下没有合适的投资机会，耐心等待，把钱放在银行里，这样更安全。在接下来的几年里，会有很多人失去他们的资产，要警惕。
《红周刊》：那在您看来，哪些因素或者措施会促使其尽早结束呢？
《红周刊》：那么这次全球经济衰退会像1929年全球市场大萧条那样严重吗？
Rogers:No， this crisis is going to be worsethan that of 2008 before it’s over. It has not been yet， but it will be. Afterall， it’s only been six weeks. Now the turbulence of the market is onlytemporarily lessened.
罗杰斯：特朗普这样做是为了选票。众所周知，他正在失去产油区的选票。但其实所有国家都应该这样做。石油崩盘了，油价下跌了，如果中国、德国或任何其他国家，如果它们没有足够的储备来应对紧急状况，都应该马上进场去买石油并存放在自己的储油罐里。
并且保持学习。如果你能保持学习，有足够的知识来支撑你的行动，你就更有可能在这场危机中坚持下来，甚至有可能赚到钱。在上世纪30年代大危机中，许多人赚到了钱，所以我们也有机会在经济不景气的时候赚钱，只要你知道你在做什么，并且足够谨慎。一定要谨慎。
《红周刊》：在您看来，订阅优秀的读物，定期阅读对投资很重要。您的很多交易决定也都是从刊物中得到了“灵感”。可以分享一下，您目前最常阅读的刊物是什么吗？
A large part of the USstock market is made up of oil companies and oil drilling companies. So thatpart of the American economy will suffer. Since it’s a large part， it will havean effect on the overall market. However， the factors that make the Americanstock market going down are not just oil， but also the outbreak of the COVID-19.
现在不仅通过B股、H股以及美国上市的中概股持有中国资产，我也持有A股了，加仓中国红酒公司
我痛恨贸易战。我是美国人，所以很不想看到现在的局面。发动贸易战完全是不理智的行为。它会伤害到这两个国家。我希望美国政府能更理智一点。到目前为止，中国的表现都更加克制、谨慎。
Weekly on Stocks: First ofall， I would like to discuss with you about the global pandemic and the major correctionof global market. Has the outbreak of COVID-19 also affected your life？
Rogers:I can only read in English， so I read Financial Times and English newspapersfrom other countries. Now everything is on the internet， so I can read thingsconveniently from all over the world； I don’t read newspapers anymore. I readabout China， Korea and Russia on the internet； I can read about any country andany industry I interested in.
Weekly on Stocks: Can we conclude that the decade-long bull marketin U.S. stocks is over？
所以我们要多从一些渠道了解更全面的信息，去看5个、或者6个媒体的报道，然后再自己思考哪些信息是正确而真实的。这不容易，不过多年来我一直这样做，现在也在教我的小孩这样做。媒体发声时，他们都认为自己是正确的，但没有人一直正确，所以我们要有自己的判断。
他提醒所有投资者，未来两三年可能很多人会损失很多钱。
Rogers:Yes， the bull market is drawing to aclose， or maybe it’s already ended. Since the US government and other nationalgovernments have been spending and printing huge amount of money， we’re havinga rally in shares on the stock market. This situation may go on for a while，because so much money has been pumped into the market. But this will be thelast rally before the emerging storm.
罗杰斯：谢谢，我期待能到中国和你们见面。
罗杰斯：（央行放水）只是各种错误中的一个。美国政府推出了2万亿财政刺激计划，央行则在加印数万亿美元的纸币。这个数量级真的非常可怕，负债将会突破天际，所以后果也将是难以承受的。短期内或许还好，因为今年总统大选将在11月份举行，所以在大选结束以前问题或许不会显现。不过在那以后，这些天量债务导致的问题就会出现，无论对美国还是其他的国家来说，都将是一场噩梦。
Rogers: The current oil price is not thelowest in history， but it is the lowest for a long time. From the rule of crudeoil prices， affected by various complex reasons， oil prices hit bottom； thenafter being recovered for a while， it will dip to a lower point； then it willgo up slowly and keep going like this. Whether in 2008 or now， this is therule.
Weekly on Stocks: The epidemichas led to a new understanding of global supply chains in various countries，and some senior government officials in the US and Japan have encouragedmultinational companies to relocate their production lines back to their homecountries， which is understood by the market as "ReverseGlobalization". How do you think about this？
罗杰斯：主要是对石油公司和石油钻探公司不利，因为显然它们会大幅亏损。对美国老百姓(行情603883,诊股)有利，那些需要石油来发电、为汽车加油、使用空调或有其他用途的人们会受益。对中国有利。对日本、韩国或任何石油消费国都有利。这对石油公司或产油国不利，但显然对其他人有利。
Inthe crisis of 2008, China saved a lot of money for the rainy day. When it startedto rain，China saved itself and helped the whole world by those money.However，China is also in debt now. All the countries are drowning in debt， so thecrisis will be very hard to solve.